Evidence for the third UK climate change risk assessment (CCRA3) - Wales

  • Commissioner: UK Government
  • Conducted by: CCC (Climate Change Committee)
  • Year: 2021
  • Countries: Wales
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The report warns that future climate projections, with heavier rainfall and increased summer soil moisture deficits, will exacerbate soil erosion, compaction, and loss of biota and organic matter in Wales, elevating the risk magnitude from medium to high. This soil degradation could lead to significant environmental, economic, and social impacts, including a 10-20% reduction in soil water storage capacity and increased river flow during rainfall events. Despite growing awareness, current adaptation responses are insufficient, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive soil monitoring and the development of detailed, actionable soil health strategies across the UK.

Future climate projections suggest that heavier rainfall events will increase erosion and compaction risks, while increased soil moisture deficits in summer will lead to the loss of biota and organic matter. The risk magnitude is expected to rise from medium to high in Wales.

Loss of soil resources has significant environmental, economic, and social implications. Severe degradation of soil quality could lead to long-term, potentially irreversible impacts. In Wales, catchment-wide soil structural degradation could result in a 10-20% reduction in soil water storage capacity and contribute up to a 10% increase in short-term river flow response to rainfall during the field capacity period.

Climate-related pressures, both direct and indirect, cover a significant portion of the UK’s soil resources, affecting the ecosystem services provided by soils.

There is an urgent need for further research and comprehensive monitoring of soils across the UK to support the development of sustainable soil policy initiatives. Despite increased awareness, adaptation responses remain insufficient relative to the level of risk.

Intense rainfall increases risks for soils made up of unconsolidated material from contaminated land, spoil tips, and mine tailings in former mining areas.

Although soil health is included in the latest UK national adaptation programs, there are no detailed action plans for integrating and implementing these aspirations. A comprehensive soil monitoring strategy is needed to better understand and monitor climate change adaptation progress alongside other drivers.

Recommendations for policy implementation

  1. Establish a comprehensive soil monitoring strategy to understand spatial and temporal variability in soil properties.
  2. Integrate soil health and resilience in Welsh Government initiatives like the Soils Policy Evidence Programme and Climate Suitability and Capability Programme.
  3. Implement risk management for spoil tips and contaminated land using nature-based solutions.
  4. Enhance data collection on soil and carbon stock changes across diverse land uses and management practices.
  5. Incorporate marine carbon stocks in GHG inventory projections.
  6. Develop long-term land use planning strategies that integrate agriculture and forestry for carbon sequestration and other benefits.

Read the full report

Evidence for the third UK climate change risk assessment (CCRA3) – Wales