Evidence for the third UK climate change risk assessment (CCRA3) - Northern Ireland

Recognises the risks to soils due to climate change, particularly increased aridity and wetness.

There is minimal data available on soil erosion in Northern Ireland, but estimates range from 0.02 to 1.27 t ha-1 yr-1 for mineral soils, and as much as 10 t ha−1 yr−1 in cultivated arable fields due to the exposure of bare soil. Projected changes in rainfall intensity could cause an increase of the erosion rate in Northern Ireland of up to 7.8 t ha yr-1.

Wetland habitats, such as peat bogs and fens, are particularly sensitive to changes in soil moisture regime. Widespread historical drainage, afforestation and adverse management have resulted in an estimated 88% of peatlands in Northern Ireland showing signs of degradation in 1990.

Climate change appears to be a more significant causal factor for the loss of Soil Organic Carbon on peat soils in semi-natural habitats to date than on agricultural soils. Warmer and drier conditions could have adverse implications for the viability of already stressed peatland habitats and their species, particularly bryophytes (mosses and liverworts).

Changes in climate are also expected to affect the abundance and activity of soil microflora (e.g. bacteria, fungi and protozoans), with implications for decomposition of organic matter and hence carbon storage, nutrient cycling and fertility-related ecosystem services.

There is no specific or stand-alone soil strategy or framework in Northern Ireland.

Risks to soils from changing climatic conditions, including seasonal aridity and wetness, are identified as significant concerns. The urgency score for these risks is classified as “More action needed”.

The magnitude of risk increases from medium at present to high by the 2050s, across all pathway scenarios. Although awareness of this threat has improved, the necessary adaptation responses are not yet commensurate with the level of risk.

Climate is a key factor influencing soil formation, processes, and properties. Changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and wind are expected to have significant impacts on soil productivity.

The need for a culture of behavioural change among farmers is emphasised, promoting personalised information to empower farmers through measuring and managing the performance of their land. Improving soil health can lead to better environmental outcomes and increased agricultural productivity.

Recommendation of significant improvements in soil and water monitoring, including the use of GPS and LiDAR technology, and greater engagement of land managers in policy development to improve soil health outcomes.

An integrated land use policy that links agricultural and forestry productivity with measures to improve soil health and resilience is suggested. This policy should be based on good knowledge of the potential of different soil types and their key functions.

Improved support for land managers is needed in terms of access to benchmarking data and advice on how to improve soil health outcomes. Greater technical support could enhance the connection between land managers and their soil, encouraging more bottom-up adaptation initiatives based on different local contexts.

Recommendations for policy implementation

1. Implement soil conservation measures to reduce degradation and enhance soil organic carbon content.
2. Invest in the restoration of degraded peatlands and other carbon-rich soils to improve their condition and carbon sequestration capacity.
3. Encourage sustainable land management practices that protect and enhance soil health.
4. Effectiveness of current measures needs to be monitored to assess their effectiveness.
5. Evidence from studies highlights the benefits of soil conservation practices in reducing erosion and increasing soil carbon storage.
6. Restoration projects in peatlands have shown significant improvements in carbon sequestration and soil health.

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Evidence for the third UK climate change risk assessment (CCRA3) – Northern Ireland